1000+ Things To Do in SF this Weekend!



Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group


1000+ Things to Do and Enjoy
in San Francisco & the Bay Area

Out of town guests are arriving, the kids are hungry, the dog is restless, or you are just lying on the couch reading email and need something to motivate you to get up and out of the house.


Dinner, brunch, burritos, burgers, desserts, bars, music, dance, theater,
walking, biking, hiking, and things to do with visitors, children and dogs

Place Magazine

Paragon Real Estate Market Reports

Note: You will undoubtedly find yourself disagreeing vehemently
with one or more of the above lists: best burrito, brunch and dive bar are
particularly contentious, ferociously disputed issues in the Bay Area. We hope you will accept our apologies for any egregious errors.


© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Irina Luck
Lic# 01927187
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct 415.738.7206
Cell 415.722.4461
iluck@paragon-re.com
 

#JustSold in Cole Valley!

275 Parnassus Sold for $1,800,000
Congratulations to my buyers that just scored a large Edwardian single family home on a prime block of Cole Valley. This one was a diamond in the rough (with some soil still attached;)), and I can’t wait to see what they do with it. They’ve already hired an award-winning San Francisco architecture firm of Schwartz and Architecture which means I’m leaving them in very good hands! This was an off-market sale and they were the first ones to see it. We wrote an offer the next day!
Park

What Costs Where in San Francisco


What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco
& Other Angles on the City Real Estate Market

March 2017 Report


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Where to Look to Buy

 for the Price You Want to Pay

Below are 3 charts from our updated 9-chart report that breaks down which neighborhoods one is most likely to find a home within a specific price range, whether house or condo. The report covers homes from under $1 million to over $5 million.

If you want to buy a house under a million dollars, one is now mostly limited to the neighborhoods that run across the southern border of San Francisco.



The full report is here: San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability


What Can I Buy for $1,200,000 or $2,000,000?


Below are illustrations of the wide range of homes (and, to some degree, lifestyles) one might buy at two different price points in the city. The higher a home is located on the vertical axis of the charts, the greater its square footage. (Note that the bathroom specifications can be a little screwy, for example 1.3 or 1.7 baths, because these are averages of homes sold at these approximate price points.)

$1,200,000 is approximately the median home price in San Francisco if one combines both houses and condos. For that price, one could buy a 4-bedroom, 2135 square foot house in Ingleside or Oceanview, or a 3-bedroom, 1566 square foot house in Outer Parkside, or a 2-bedroom, 1070 square foot condo in Pacific Heights.



For $2 million, one could purchase a gracious 4-bedroom, 2650 square foot, detached house on a large lot in Forest Hill, or a classic 2-level, 3-bedroom, 1900 square foot condo with a garden in the Marina, or a 2-bedroom, 1350 square foot, luxury high-rise condo with spectacular views in South Beach.


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Quick Market Update


December through February constitute the slowest sales months of the year and are subject to significant seasonal issues, so coming to definitive conclusions about where the market is heading based on their data is difficult. However, for what it is worth, comparing the 3-month period to the same period a year ago, the median house sales price at $1,290,000 is up 4.5% and the median condo sales price at $1,050,000 is down 4.1%. As mentioned in earlier reports, the big dynamic affecting the condo market has been the surge of new-construction inventory hitting the market in the past year, just as demand started to soften. The inventory of new condos for sale is now at its highest level in 7 years, and, not surprisingly, this is impacting the supply and demand dynamic for condos, especially in those districts where new construction is concentrated. On the other hand, the inventory of house listings continues to remain at record lows, keeping that market, especially its more affordable segments, quite competitive.

This chart below reflects the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 5-county metro area house market, going through the end of 2016. It illustrates how in 2016, more affordably-priced houses continued to appreciate significantly, while the most expensive segment basically plateaued. Generally speaking, this is a common dynamic around the Bay Area.


San Francisco Median Home Price Trends since 1994
For a longer-term perspective

New Listings Begin Pouring onto the Market Again


The period from March through May is usually the most active selling season of the year, and we will soon have more conclusive indications of where the 2017 market is headed. This next chart illustrates the typical, dramatic surge of new inventory that fuels sales during this season.


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San Francisco Home Sales with Views


SF is a city known for its wide variety of gorgeous views, which can add substantially to the value of a home so graced. Of all the house sales in 2016, only 88 reported having a Golden Gate Bridge view, and some of those were peek-a-boo views (i.e. if you lean out the bathroom window on the top floor) or roof deck views. A full-on, panoramic view of the GG Bridge from Pacific Heights adds over $1 million to the median house price there. Unsurprisingly, condos have the most, and most spectacular, views due to high-rise condo projects.

San Francisco Home Sales by Bedroom Count

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Renting vs. Buying in San Francisco

Comparing the purchase, with 20% down, of a 2-bedroom/2-bath condo

 with the rental of a comparable apartment in San Francisco


Every year or so, we like to update this analysis using current median sales prices and average rents for comparable 2-bedroom condos and apartments. Rent vs. buy calculations can be performed a wide variety of ways, and results will depend on your own financial circumstances and economic projections, which you should review with your accountant. There is a versatile calculator published by The New York Times, where one can play with all the financial factors involved: NYT Rent vs. Buy Calculator. Our analysis represents simply one scenario, which is meant to be more of an invitation to perform your own calculations than a definitive conclusion on the subject.

Depending on your circumstances, plans and predictions for the future, renting may well be the best choice for you. However, low interest rates, high rents, loan principal pay-down over time, inflation and appreciation rates, and the large tax benefits that accrue to homeownership typically give a large long-term financial advantage to buying, if you have the funds for the cash down-payment. (Of course, as with any investment, financial results will ultimately depend on your purchase and sale dates.) This next chart compares net monthly housing costs between renting and buying after tax deductions and principal repayment are accounted for. Our full report goes into much greater detail, such as the accumulation of wealth, in the form of home equity, over time. Please contact me if you would like a copy.


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Other recent Paragon reports you might find interesting:

Comprehensive Survey of the 2016 Market in San Francisco

San Francisco Luxury Homes Market Report

A Survey of Real Estate Markets around the Bay Area

Bay Area & San Francisco Home Price Maps


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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis, which we are happy to provide upon request.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.


© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group

Gold, Google & the San Francisco Real Estate Market



Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

Gold, Google, Facebook & San Francisco Homes
Return on Investment Rates since 2011

Penthouses, Probates, Fixer-Uppers & Panoramic Views
A Survey of the SF Real Estate Market in 2016

January 2017 Report
including over 20 custom charts


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This first chart is a somewhat lighthearted, but we believe accurate look at how various 2011 investments would have played out through 2016. (FB is dated from its 2012 IPO.) When calculating appreciation, purchase and sale dates are critical factors, and changing those can alter the results significantly: Using 2011, the last bottom of the real estate market, as the purchase date certainly plays to the advantage of home price increases. If you bought gold or soybeans in 2011, you really should have sold them a couple years ago at the height of the commodity price boom.

Besides the appreciation percentage noted, buying a home in 2011 with all cash would have generated large, additional financial returns in the form of extremely low monthly housing costs. Buying it with 20% down supercharges the return on cash investment, and that is before adding in other advantages: Even with an 80% loan, by 2016 your monthly housing costs, with recent low interest rates and tax advantages, would be well below market rents. Then there is the huge capital gains exclusion on the sale of a primary residence, which would not apply to other investments.

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Sales of Probates, Penthouses, Fixer-Uppers, Lofts;
Homes with Views, Elevators & Wine Cellars

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Long-term San Francisco
Median Home Price Appreciation


San Francisco median house prices continued to appreciate in 2016, albeit, at 6%, at a considerably slower rate than the previous 4 years, while condo prices basically plateaued (and indeed dipped in some neighborhoods). As with almost everything to do with real estate values, it boils down mostly to supply and demand, as discussed below.



In 2016, the supply (and sales) of house listings in the city continued to dwindle, while a surge of new-construction condo projects hitting the market appreciably increased the inventory of condos available to purchase. In 2003, house sales in San Francisco were over 50% higher than in 2016. According to a study by the National Association of Realtors, the median time house owners are staying in their homes has jumped from an average of 6 years in 1987-2008 to 9 years since: Owners are getting older, not changing jobs as often, and baby boomers are aging in place as NAR put it. House owners sell their homes much less frequently than condo owners, who tend to be younger. In SF, there is also the factor of a reluctance to sell when that means facing a very challenging market for buyers. And with very low interest rates, and very high rents, some owners are renting out their houses instead of selling.

It all boils down to a continuing strong demand for houses meeting a steadily declining supply: Even with a market that cooled somewhat in 2016, competition between buyers continues to push house prices up, especially in more affordable neighborhoods. The equation is different for condos, which has become the dominant property-sales type in the city: A cooling market is meeting increased supply. There has been no crash in condo prices, but areas with the greatest quantity of new condo construction have seen small declines.


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What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco


Below are a few of our many updated analyses on home sales and prices by neighborhood, property type and bedroom count.

House Sales & Values


As can be seen above, two of the most affordable districts for houses, Districts 10 and 2, also provide 37% of all the house sales in the city. Generally speaking, they have continued to experience very strong buyer demand in 2016.

Condo Sales & Values


District 9, a large district that stretches from SoMa, South Beach and Mission Bay to Potrero Hill, Dogpatch and Inner Mission, is increasingly dominating condo sales in the city. The great majority of new condo construction, especially of the largest projects, has been occurring in this district.

All our breakdowns by neighborhood and home size are here: SF Home Price Tables


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Home Sales by Price Segment by District


Behind the overall median prices often quoted is a wide range of individual sales across a spectrum of prices. Here are a few of our updated analyses for every district of the city.



Our complete collection of district analyses: SF District & Neighborhood Sales Breakdowns

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San Francisco Overview Market Statistics


The following classic measures of market heat all tell the same story: Coming out of the recession in 2011, the San Francisco market became increasingly frenzied through the spring of 2015. In late 2015, as housing affordability became a critical issue, and the local high-tech economy saw some cooling, and financial markets worldwide experienced increasing volatility, the SF real estate market began to cool and normalize. Buyer competition for new listings softened, overbidding declined, days-on-market increased, appreciation declined or plateaued, and so on. And the condo market cooled more than the house market due to issues discussed above.

2016 saw a reasonable adjustment to a desperately overheated market, but nothing that suggests, so far, an imminent, dramatic downturn. Indeed, by national standards, most of our current statistics still define a relatively robust market. In a recent interview, Ted Egan, chief economist of the City of San Francisco, put the odds of a new recession at 10% or less.

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Real Estate Market Seasonality


Listing and sales activity builds from early January, the nadir of the market, into spring, typically the most active season. Accepted-offer activity provides an excellent illustration of the heat of the market during different times of the year.


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3 Important Economic Indicators

San Francisco & Bay Area Employment Trends


After dropping a little in the first half of 2016, SF and Bay Area employment numbers jumped back up in the second half, an encouraging sign for the local economy.


Mortgage Interest Rates in 2016


Interest rates popped 22% higher since the election, though they still remain very low by any historical measure. Where they will go now is a subject of intense speculation since they are a critical component of housing affordability.


The S&P 500 Stock Index since 1994


To the surprise of many, U.S. stock markets also popped after the election to their highest points ever.


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And now on to 2017, certain to be another interesting year.

Wishing you and yours a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year.

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis, which we are happy to provide upon request. Please call or email if you have any questions or need assistance in any way.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.


© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Irina Luck
Lic# 01927187
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct 415.738.7206
Cell 415.722.4461
iluck@paragon-re.com
 

Just Sold! A commercial condo in the heart of Noe Valley.

I was fortunate to represent my client in a recent purchase of a commercial condo right in the heart of Noe Valley. And, what a deal we got for my client! 3953 24th st. #C2, 490 sq.ft. was listed for $299k, we were able to get it down to $280k. At $571.24 a square foot, this place is a steal!

The condo has amazing light, high ceilings, a balcony and is located on the ground floor in the middle of of the 24th street  action. See the pictures below. 443354 443354_02 443354_04 443354_06 443354_07 443354_08 443354_11

My client, who seems to have an extremely good real estate karma, is a very talented and accomplished pianist. She will be opening a piano studio at the space, specializing in working with children. She should be up and running in a month or so. Highly recommend her! Check out Schumann Music Studio.

Just Sold! 2655 Bush st. #207

Brand new construction 2d/2ba sold for $1,260,400!

Beautiful 2bd/2ba condo with 9ft ceilings, European style kitchens, with Thermador built in refrigerator, Bosch stainless steel appliances, hard wood floors in living areas, in unit laundry with stacking washer and dryer, deeded storage and parking space.

San Francisco’s hottest Brand New construction luxury condo building at Lower Pacific Height. This new building is adjacent to the iconic Pacific Heights neighborhood, with its stunning homes, gorgeous parks, and easy-to-walk terrain. It’s here where you’ll find upmarket shops and boutiques, bars, lounges, and restaurants. The neighborhood is centrally located in an established upper-class area where the opportunity to live in a new, luxury San Francisco condo is extremely rare.

THE LUXURY MID-RISE CONDOS FEATURE:
Convenient location
Refined neighborhood scene
Within walking distance of UCSF Medical Center, Kaiser Permanente®, and California Pacific Medical Center
Close to UCSF’s main campus, Golden Gate Park, and the Presidio
Close to the vibrant and alluring Laurel, Fillmore, and NoPa districts
Walking distance to San Francisco’s best boutiques, restaurants, open spaces, and cultural attractions

01_districtatlowerpacificheights_fi_09-25-15bush-design-rendering_lobby-street-view_triomphefitness-centerthe-discrict-1

2016 Holiday Events Calendar







Multipe Angles of a Changing San Francisco Market.



Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

Multiple Angles on a Changing San Francisco Market

SF Real Estate Market Continues to Cool Unevenly
& Luxury House Sales Unexpectedly Jump in October

November 2016 Paragon Report

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San Francisco Median Home Sales Prices


Median sales prices usually jump in autumn, to a large degree because of the seasonal increase in luxury home sales, and that is what happened in October. The combined house and condo median sales price was up 6% from October 2015, but substantially unchanged from the previous peak median prices achieved in spring 2015 and spring 2016.

Click on the map below to access our updated Bay Area & SF home price maps

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Overview


The six weeks from mid-September to Halloween constitute the heart of the relatively short autumn selling season, with the market typically going into semi-hibernation from Thanksgiving through mid-January. (Sales still occur during this period and it can be an excellent time to buy with the big drop in competition.) Generally speaking, this autumn experienced further cooling in SF market conditions: October saw significant year-over-year declines in accepted-offer and closed-sale activity, and significant increases in price reductions and listings expiring without selling. Condos appear to be most affected on all these counts, with some decline in condo values: This situation is certainly being exacerbated by new condo projects coming on market at the same time that buyer demand has been softening.

The house market has continued to see declines in listing inventory and to shrink as a percentage of total home sales, thus becoming a scarcer commodity. It has performed much better, especially in more affordable neighborhoods. And sales of luxury houses suddenly spiked dramatically in October, though this appears to have been mostly driven by a huge surge in such listings in September. This jump in expensive house sales drove the median house sales price to its highest point ever in October, to just over $1.4 million. The condo median sales price in October, at $1,150,000 was above that of October 2015, but a tad below its all-time high in June. Please note that median sales prices are not perfect measures of changes in fair market value, since they fluctuate for a number of reasons, including seasonality and significant changes in the inventory of homes for sale.

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Bay Area Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Recent price changes by property type and price segment


Case-Shiller Index numbers all refer to a January 2000 price of 100, and track appreciation
since then. Thus 243 on the chart signifies a price 143% above that of January 2000.


As mentioned in earlier reports, the highest pressure of buyer demand has shifted in the past year toward more affordable homes, and that is now showing up in the different price movements of low, middle and high-price tier houses. The Case-Shiller Index does not measure median sales price changes, but has its own special algorithm to determine same-home appreciation. This short-term chart illustrates how lower-priced houses have continued to appreciate rapidly, while mid-price and high-price houses have recently more or less plateaued, and condo prices have declined. The Bay Area Index for August 2016 was published in late October.

Chart: Long-Term, Case-Shiller Bay Area Home Price Trends

Link to our complete S&P Case-Shiller Index report

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Houses of $3 million+/ Condos, Co-ops & TICs of $2 million+


This report will generally consider houses selling for $3m or more, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $2m or more, as constituting the luxury home segment in the city. They total just under 10% of total home sales. For the ultra-luxury designation, houses are bumped up to $5m or more, and condos, co-ops and TICs to $3m or more. These price segments total 2.6% of total home sales.

Pursuant to a big jump in new high-end home listings in September, luxury house sales in October, suddenly hit their highest point in many years, if not ever. This is illustrated in the red line in the chart above. Luxury condo sales reported to MLS, as seen in the blue line, were higher than in October 2015, but far below peaks hit in previous spring selling seasons. However, this does not count new-project luxury condo listings unreported to MLS, which are playing an increasingly large role in the market and creating substantial competition for resale luxury-condo listings.

Below are 2 charts breaking out luxury home sales by city district.



Additional Chart: New high-end listings coming on market

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Further Perspective


The past 14 months has seen the Chinese stock market crash, the oil price crash, Brexit, high U.S. financial market volatility, a slowdown in the Bay Area high-tech boom, and enormous election-related anxiety. It is difficult to tell exactly how these events may have affected real estate markets. However, despite significant affordability issues and the transition to less heated market conditions – as illustrated in the analyses of this report – so far, we have seen no sign of anything approaching an impending crash in our local market.


Selected Real Estate Market Statistics
Year-over-year changes by property type and price segment


Listings vs. Sales: The overall inventory of house listings has persisted in declining, while house sales are basically even year-over-year. Condo inventory continues to climb (without including new project condos not listed in MLS), while sales have been dropping.



Percentage of Sales over Asking Price: Condos saw dramatic drops in this metric, illustrating a significant decline in buyer demand and competition. Overall, houses have seen a negligible decline, maintaining a very high percentage of sales over asking price. Luxury houses, as mentioned before, experienced a stronger October market than last year.



Median Percentage of Sales Price over Final List Price: All market segments saw year-over-year drops as buyers refused to overbid list prices on the scale of previous years. However, the general house segment still saw a 9.3% median overbid of list price, which is huge, even considering that some agents are consciously underpricing their listings. The other segments, with overbid percentages shrinking toward zero, are seeing a much greater quantity of sales negotiated below list price. And this does not include the increasing number of listings that are simply expiring, i.e. with no sale taking place.


Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage Overview
All San Francisco residential sales


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of listings for sale at the average annual rate of sale. All segments ticked up, indicating some market softening, but the general house market is still well within seller market territory. The biggest change is in the luxury condo market, where inventory has been hitting new highs, while sales have generally been declining, thus putting the segment in buyer market territory. Again, these figures do not include the large number of new-project listings and sales unreported to MLS, which would probably increase the condo MSI readings.



Average Condo Dollar per Square Foot Values by Era of Construction: Newer condos sell for higher average dollar per square foot values than older condos. Generally speaking, in 2016 there has been a tick down in this measure of value, which, as seen in the chart at the beginning of this report, correlates with the conclusion of the Case-Shiller Index as well. According to The Mark Company, which specializes in the marketing of new-construction condo projects (for which statistics are usually not available), average dollar per square foot values for brand new condos have dropped about 8% over the past year. This would presumably reflect the fierce competition between projects to sell out their inventories of units.


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The two following charts are from our recent report on the Bay Area Apartment Building market, mostly focusing on San Francisco, Alameda and Marin Counties.


Median Sales Prices for Multi-Unit Properties
by building size and submarket

Average Asking Rents by Bay Area County


Rent rates in San Francisco have been dropping in 2016 after peaking in 2015, with estimates of the decline generally running in the range of 3% to 6.5%, but with some city rental agents saying that certain districts have seen slumps of more than 10%. We believe there are 3 big factors at work: a rush of large, newly built apartment buildings coming on market; a softening of demand as hiring trends have fluctuated; and affordability issues that have caused more prospective renters to simply turn away from living in the city, their first choice, and look elsewhere. However, even with the recent decline, the city still has the highest rents in the country.

Link to our full Apartment Building Market report

Link to our full Rent Trends report


Our Best Autumn Ever


We hope you will forgive our celebrating the fact that Paragon, which opened its doors in 2004, represented buyers and sellers in closing more in San Francisco home sales in October than any other brokerage. [Total dollar volume residential sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics.]

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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.


© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Irina Luck
Lic# 01927187
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct 415.738.7206
Cell 415.722.4461
iluck@paragon-re.com
 

Could you guess the hottest neighborhood in San Francisco right now?



Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

The Hottest Neighborhood Market in San Francisco
and Other Real Estate Analyses

October 2016 Paragon Market Report


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Before jumping to neighborhood market dynamics and the hottest market in the city, here are a few overview analyses:


San Francisco Median Home Prices by Quarter
2012 – 2016


Median sales prices typically fall in Q3 from Q2 due to seasonal inventory and demand issues, and that occurred in 2016 as well. Year over year, the Q3 2016 house price is running above that of Q3 2015, while the condo median price has stayed essentially flat.

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San Francisco Median Home Prices by Year
1993 – 2016

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Biggest Surge in New Luxury Home Listings Ever


Even more so than the general market, the luxury home market is fiercely seasonal, with spring and autumn being much more active than summer and, especially, the mid-winter holiday doldrums. September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings, which fuels the relatively short autumn selling season before the luxury market starts to go into hibernation in mid-late November. This year saw a particularly large jump in the number of new listings of homes of $2.5 million and above, to by far the highest level ever.

Because the time between listings coming on market, offers being negotiated and accepted, and then the transactions actually closing sale is 4 to 6 weeks or more, it will be a little while before we have hard data on how the market responded to this feast of expensive homes hitting the market.

The Hottest, Most Competitive Market in San Francisco

A Shift from Prestigious, Expensive, High-Tech and Hip

to Normal, Middle-Class, Working-People Affordable


Since the market recovery began in 2012, various districts have taken the lead as the hottest markets in San Francisco: The affluent and prestigious Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district and Pacific Heights-Marina district led the recovery out of recession. Later South Beach/SoMa, Hayes Valley and, especially the Mission, went white hot as the high-tech boom surged (though, honestly, high appreciation rates became general throughout the city). In mid-2015, price appreciation in many of the more expensive and fashionable districts started to slow down and plateau.

With the search for affordable homes, and houses in particular, becoming ever more challenging (or desperate), the greatest pressure of buyer demand moved to a large, lopsided curve of historically less expensive neighborhoods running along the western-most edge of the city from Outer Richmond south to Lake Merced, then east across the southern border with Daly City, and up through Bernal Heights and Bayview. Of these, we believe Realtor District 2, Sunset/Parkside, with its quiet streets; its closeness to the beach, GG Park and highways south to Silicon Valley; and its attractive, modest-sized houses built mostly in the decade before and decade after WWII, is now the hottest, most competitive market in San Francisco.



In the charts below, notice how year-over-year statistics have generally cooled somewhat in most areas of the city from the frenzied market prevailing in the first part of 2015: higher days on market, lower percentages of listings selling over asking price, higher months-supply-of-inventory figures, and so on. The most affordable districts are those generally showing the least, or even no, change year over year, and some of them are still sizzling. However, the 2016 statistics for SF house sales in no way suggest what would be described as a weak market in any of the city districts. (Some of the condo markets have softened more significantly.)


Overbidding Asking Prices: SF House Sales

Percentage of House Sales Selling over Asking Price

SF House-Price Appreciation Rates

Average Days on Market

Months Supply of Inventory:
Buyer Demand vs. Supply of Listings for Sale

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San Francisco District Condo Markets


For a number of reasons, including a significant increase in new-construction projects, the condo market in San Francisco is not as strong as its house market, but without any hint of an impending crash: The median SF condo price has simply plateaued after years of feverish appreciation. Based upon our analyses of underlying market dynamics shown via the charts below, we believe the condo markets of the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district, and the Richmond/Lake Street district are currently the most dynamic in the city. It is probably no coincidence that these areas are seeing comparatively little new condo construction adding to inventory.

The cooling of the condo market is clearly reflected in the 2016 vs. 2015 statistics. The first chart also illustrates, as mentioned in earlier reports, how the luxury condo segment ($2m+), especially in District 9 (greater SoMa/South Beach/ Yerba Buena) where the majority of new, luxury condo construction is occurring, has softened the most. These charts do not include the many hundreds of newly built or under construction condos listed, accepting offers or sold, which are not reported to MLS, as exact data on that activity is hard to verify.

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District Sales Overview
Sales Volumes and Sales Prices


Chart: Average San Francisco House Sizes by Neighborhood

As illustrated above, the 3 most affordable districts for buying a house in San Francisco are also 3 of the 4 districts with the most house sales.



25 years ago, the greater South Beach/ SoMa/ Mission-Bay area did not even have an appreciable amount of residential housing. Now, if we add new-condo sales not reported to MLS (which are not reflected in the chart above), it is the area with the greatest number of condo sales in the city, more than twice as many as the second ranking district. It is also now the foremost area for luxury condo sales, having leapt ahead of the old-prestige Pacific Heights and Russian Hill districts. This is the only place in the city where high-rise construction is currently allowed, and there is much new construction in the works.


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New Bay Area Hiring Surge?
Employed Resident Count in 4 Central Bay Area Counties


Hiring and the population growth it engenders play a huge role in buyer and renter demand. After peaking in December 2015, the number of employed residents in the 4 middle Bay Area counties fell by 6000 through June 2016, the largest sustained drop in 5½ years. This seemed to correlate with an apparent cooling in the high-tech boom. Then in July & August 2016, a sudden, new hiring surge added almost 38,000 to the employment numbers, hitting a dramatic new high. We will have to wait for the data of future months to see if this is part of a sustained second wind in Bay Area hiring (especially in high-tech), or simply an unusually large, short-term fluctuation.

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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how median prices apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.


© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Irina Luck
Lic# 01927187
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct 415.738.7206
Cell 415.722.4461
iluck@paragon-re.com
 

Southern neighborhoods dominate Top 20 Overbids of the last two weeks!

The last two weeks of sales prove that most buyers believe that it’s the southern neighborhoods that hold a lot of upside. All Southern neighborhoods of San Francisco: Bayshore, Crocker Amazon, Visitation Valley, Excelsior, Glen Park, Bernal Heights with occasional sprinklings of central and western neighborhoods seem to dominate our top overbids chart.

CHECK OUT THE LATEST 20 OVERBIDS HERE

My favorite is this 5 bedrooms home at 21 Byron Court in Crocker Amazon that is in a DIRE need of a sensible paint job. That however didn’t stop it from getting sold for a whopping 50.23% over asking.

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SEE THE REST OF THE THE LATEST 20 OVERBIDS HERE